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December 14, 2009

Is Your Traffic Estimate Correct?

The following guest tip was provided by Umair Asif.

While Google Adwords Keyword Tool is a great resource to evaluate the number of searches for a keyword, I assume that a majority of webmasters do not realize how easy it is to inadvertently distort calculating the amount of traffic for a keyword. The reason for this posting is to clear a common misconception regarding the amount of searches for a given keyword and actual clicks on the Search Engine result page.

Simply, if Google Adword Keyword Tool gives you 100,000 total monthly searches for a given keyword don’t necessarily means that 100,000 unique users will click on a search page. You may yourself experience that many times you do not click on the result after typing a certain query. Moreover there are times when you may click on Back button or simply type in the URL after finding something interesting.

Here I am going to address the question, how many users actually click on SERP (search engine result page).

Example:

Global Monthly Search Volume for the term ‘website marketing’ using Exact match type has approximately 60,500 searches per month across Google network. This means approximately 2,000 per day. Now, let us estimate a probable click through rate on Search Engine Result Page.

Here are estimates based on popular studies from prominent researchers, constituting large amounts of data sample.

1. Janson Study: From nearly 7 million queries, 35% never clicked on a result. This means a CTR of 65%.

2. Microsoft Study: Two different results of 78% and 58% CTR for common queries.

The above results should not be taken for granted but the do provide an insight into the behavior of users which can help webmasters better estimate traffic from a given keyword.

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11 comments already

  1. seoshankar (seoshankar) on 12.31.1969 at 11:59 pm | permalink
  2. Is Your Traffic Estimate Correct? http://bit.ly/89QIxU

    [Reply]

  3. David on 12.14.2009 at 2:56 pm | permalink
  4. Once again you girls/guys are amazing i have just started seriously looking into the traffic estimator issue. I thought Aaron Wall @ SEObook had a rant about it a few weeks ago how it didn’t add up but i’ve struggled to find that post again :(

    So if this metric is all about impressions, this shifts the value of this data down a few levels. I’m looking at upto 80% variance in actual data to clients websites against what the traffic estimator provides…

    [Reply]

  5. Southampton Coach Hire on 12.15.2009 at 4:17 pm | permalink
  6. Interesting to see the click through data - quite surprising! Tho I do find CTRs on search results pages can depend on lots of things including industry and demographic.

    [Reply]

  7. Blogidy on 12.15.2009 at 7:26 pm | permalink
  8. The keyword tool is excellent, I like to use to find keywords for my blog posts and articles. Also the main keywords for my site were found with the keyword tool. I had never even thought that how much may the click-thru rate vary between niches. Good point to note, when doing research.

    Thanks for the post.

    [Reply]

  9. Marketing Toronto on 12.15.2009 at 9:46 pm | permalink
  10. We have a client who sits at #1 for almost 90% of their major keywords. So they should get the lion share of the clicks!
    When I sat down and compared the traffic data in their Analytics account vs. the Adwords Keyword Tool, the numbers were all over the place.
    Some Analytics numbers were 10% of the Keyword Tool others were 200%, there was zero consistency.
    We still believe a PPC campaign, even for 30 days, is the best way to get data.

    [Reply]

  11. David on 12.17.2009 at 8:04 am | permalink
  12. I have looked into the figures and they are massive variances but there seems to be a consistent trend based on estimated search volume. Agree that if you are running exact match campaigns that it is likely more accurate and combined with the new keyword tool that provides stats that show your ad/search share.

    http://www.google.com/sktool/

    [Reply]

  13. michael on 12.18.2009 at 12:17 am | permalink
  14. What a light shed on all of us! So simple but profound idea not to expect too much! Thank you and would like to hear more of your scientific observations.

    [Reply]

  15. Watch TV Online Free on 12.28.2009 at 3:10 pm | permalink
  16. thanks, i am doing it

    [Reply]

  17. Money Professor on 01.16.2010 at 6:05 pm | permalink
  18. I have always found the google tool unreliable and found similar results as marketing toronto said. The other problem is that even sitting at no1 in search for a keyword often google ads will be higher and presumably soaking up a lot of the search traffic.

    [Reply]

  19. film seyret on 01.17.2010 at 11:59 am | permalink
  20. I dont think the datas on Adwors Keyword Tools are correct…

    [Reply]

  21. iPhone App Developer on 03.05.2010 at 12:31 pm | permalink
  22. People have to consider Google product interms of getting accurate information. I always prefer Google trends and Google Adowrds keyword for that. Nice info

    [Reply]

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